The Wall Street Journal - November 19, 2008
Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. Or is it the other way around? The topsy-turvy stock market is tough to read.
In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has briefly been over 13,000 and below 8,000. The past month has felt like the Cyclone roller coaster on Brooklyn's Coney Island -- lots of ups and downs, the whole rickety thing feeling like it's going to crash at any minute.
Great investors are taught to listen to the market. Each tick of the tape has something to say about expectations for growth, inflation, policy changes and looming recessions. The stock market is like a giant mass of pulsing plasma doing price discovery and a game of hot potato, getting stocks into the correct hands with the right risk profile. It's way too big for any one person to manipulate, let alone touch directly. Instead, millions of us provide input with our buying and selling decisions.
When it's at its most efficient, with buyers and sellers neatly matched up at the right price, it's a pretty good predictor. The Crash of 1929 announced a recession, and the wake-up call unheeded might have caused many of the bad policies leading to the Great Depression. The Crash of 1987? Not so much.
You see, the market is a great manipulator. In September, the Dow dropped 700 points intraday after the House of Representatives voted down the Treasury's TARP bank-rescue bill. Spooked, the House passed the bill the next week. Or how about this? The Dow was up 300 points on Election Day applauding an Obama victory and then down 1,600 points since.
The market can also be a bold-faced liar. On Jan. 22, the Fed announced an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut in response to huge drops in European markets. A few days later, it came out that a rogue trader at Société Générale lost them $7 billion and the bank was unwinding his positions. Oops.
So which is it now: an efficient mechanism or a manipulating liar? Should you listen to it warning of doom or anticipating renewal? I'd say stick wax in your ears and don't listen to the market until February.
Don't get me wrong. The freezing of the credit markets is wreaking havoc on the world economy. Corporate profits are dropping. Central banks are fighting off deflation and may not turn off the spigots fast enough -- which could ignite runaway inflation. But because of the credit mess, I am convinced the stock market is at its least efficient today. Don't read too much into any move. Here are the five biggest dislocations taking place:
- Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock -- and who doesn't -- it's always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year.
- Mutual-fund redemptions: Mutual funds are also dumped for tax losses. When the stock market is down in the morning, it's usually because of mutual-fund redemptions.
Fidelity's giant Magellan fund, down 56%, is one of many in the $6 trillion stock-fund business having an awful year. As investors call or click to get out of these funds, Fidelity and the others have to unload shares the next morning to raise cash. This forced-selling overwhelms the system. New York Stock Exchange specialists, who are supposed to maintain an orderly market, stop buying and back away. You get huge drops, which can unnerve even more investors and cause them to redeem.
- Mutual fund cap-gain distributions: To make matters worse, in December mutual funds do capital-gains distributions. In a down year like 2008, you would think there are no taxes to pay. Think again. Legg Mason's Value Trust, run by Bill Miller, outperformed the market for 15 years by buying many "unvalue" names like Amazon. As investors redeem, he is forced to sell many of these stocks originally purchased at very low prices, triggering huge capital gains in a year his fund is down 62%. You can almost guarantee investors also will sell more of these funds to pay their unexpected tax bill.
- Hedge-fund redemptions: Instead of overnight selling like mutual funds, hedge funds typically require 45 days' notice for investors to get out of a fund. They've been furiously selling since September to raise cash to pay investors. This usually shows up as a set of stocks that just go down and down and down with no obvious explanation.
Rubbing salt in hedge-fund wounds is the fact that Lehman Brothers was a prime broker to many hedge funds, holding their shares. While Lehman's bankruptcy was not a problem in the U.S., in England the policy is to freeze accounts until the mess can be sorted out. There are billions in assets locked in this bankruptcy, and hedge funds are forced to sell positions in the U.S. and elsewhere to raise cash, exacerbating the downside here.
By the way, when hedge funds are down for the year, they work practically for free until they make up the loss. We'll see hedge funds close and stocks liquidated as -- no surprise -- hedge-fund managers like to get paid.
- Margin calls: Whenever stocks go down sharply, you quickly find who owns them with debt. We have seen spectacular margin calls, a requirement for more capital to cover share losses. Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon unloaded 33 million shares to cover losses. Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone had a forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS shares because of a margin call on other stocks. You can bet many not-so-public margin calls are behind many huge price drops. These usually take place in the last 30 minutes of trading.
So won't January be alright once these dislocations weighing on the market are lifted? The January effect is supposed to be positive.
Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling. My favorite Wall Street adage suggests that the stock market trades to inflict the maximum amount of pain. Remember, you can only ignore the stock market for so long. Once everyone thinks it can only go down . . . it might go up.

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Author: Ian D. MajorInsurance can be very confusing for those of us who are not in the insurance business.Often, our insurance agents start babbling about liability, comprehensive coverage, third party liability, and more - and we feel like they are speaking a language we have never heard before. Well - in a sense they are.Again, it is very confusing to those who are not in the insurance business. Unfortunately, if you are to get the coverage that you need, at a price you can afford, you must start learning some of the terminology.For instance, many people do not understand what the difference between third party liability insurance and full coverage insurance is. Third party liability coverage and full coverage insurance are much the same, but in other ways they are uniquely different. Before you determine which one you need, it is important to understand exactly what each type of coverage is.Third Party Liability Coverage is essentially coverage that protects you in the event of an accident that is your fault.It generally covers other people and their property that is damaged in a covered accident. It does not cover you, your passengers, your boat, your motor, or your trailer. Furthermore, third party liability coverage only goes into effect if your boat is in an accident that occurred when the boat was being used in a private capacity, as opposed to a commercial capacity.Third party liability coverage is required by most states, and each state will have its own requirements as to the minimum liability coverage amounts that you have.This type of insurance is generally required whether your boat is financed or not. Third party liability insurance coverage is often simply referred to as liability insurance, or in the case of boats, watercraft liability insurance. Talk to your agent to find out how much coverage is required in your state.Full coverage insurance, on the other hand, will cover you, your boat, your motor, your trailer, and your passengers.It is often referred to as comprehensive insurance, and it is available in different coverage amounts, with different options that are available for the policy. This type of insurance will be required by most lenders who finance boats, and most lenders will have their own requirements as to which optional insurance is purchased.Essentially, what it comes down to is that third party liability insurance coverage protects other people and their property in the event of an accident that is your fault, while full coverage insurance protects you and your property - in the same way that the third party insurance protects others.In fact, full coverage insurance will cover you whether the accident was your fault, someone elses fault, or even no-fault. In most cases, it is in your best interest to have both third party liability insurance coverage - which is required - as well as full coverage insurance - which may be required if you have financed your boat.Again, even if the boat has not been financed, you should strongly consider purchasing a full coverage or comprehensive policy. Many people even continue to carry the full coverage policy long after the boat has been paid off.Boat repairs are expensive, and anything can happen.Most full coverage policies will cover you in the event of mechanical failure, theft, and vandalism, as well as losses caused by storms, fires, explosions, sinking, and much more. Talk with your insurance agent to find out about the different options available for full coverage policies, and make sure that you get the coverage that you need!CopyRight Ian D. Major 2005.About the author: Ian D. Major makes it easy to understand Boat Insurance, quickly and easily. Learn all you need to know by visiting:http://www.the-boat-insurance-directory.coman entirely FR*EE source of information about Boat Insurance.

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Many of our oldsters (mature citizens) will grasp what I'm going to
tell you. Many AARP members and elderly are very concerned about
their investments and rightly so. With a little research you will also
understand what is going on within our very own government. Right now
it seems that it's being torn apart at the seams. I would like to
tear a few of them apart myself, with gusto.

It would be interesting to see the statistics of the top 10% value/
volume of the stock market changes in buying and selling. Take the
high dollar value and analyze who is doing what. I don't know where
the break is but you can count on it that the high value/volume
contains the secrets. Trace each sale and purchase to its origin/
destination and see if the stock market is being manipulated. You can
bet your bottom dollar that it is. It may be known only by the very
top very few. Accumulate each stock and analyze each stock first in
total. Then break each selected stock into who is who at origin and
who is who at its destination. With today's computers it would be a
snap to be able to do this. You can bet the transactions are tied to
source/who and destination/who. For my money it is the banks that
have this large volume of money to work with or the billionaire tycoons to
play this shell game. More than likely the banks; such as the Federal
Reserve and the Bank Of England. It wouldn't surprise me at all to
find that it's an in house game originating with one person or group
working out of one or two accounts transferring fictitious
transactions. Since the money is created out of thin air it really
has no value in a game like this except to extort money from the
unsuspecting. They are playing a you loose they win game, no matter
what.


You and I don't have the clout to be able to accomplish an analysis
of this nature but you can bet your life someone does; and it's probably
not a friend. I'm an old systems analyst dog and know that there are
many stories in statistics, and they can be very revealing. We need
Congress to establish a Bank Of America and be totally independent of
the world banks and controlled by congress/we the people in
accordance to our constitution. Then this Bank Of America could issue debt free
money and have our debts paid for in less than two years. Only 3
times in history have we had debt free money and that was in Colonial
times, then the Lincoln Green Back following the Civil War, and John F.
Kennedys issue of debt free silver backed money. Look up his
presidential order # 11110 on your search engine, it's very
revealing.

Get ready for the shock of your life. Is it possible that the banks
were responsible for these two assignations? Or was it just
coincidence?


This approaches another subject that is quite interesting and that is
the method that we use to elect our senators. Our early founders
elected to have it set up to have the congress of the states appoint
and elect their senators. The senators then appointed and elected the
president. Boy would this clear the dust. It's time to think about
it.

This would put the control back to the people and they would control
their representative or throw him/her out. The clean up would be
where it belongs, at the grass roots. This is where the oversight comitties
would be most effective.


While we are at it, the 14th amendment to the constitution needs
revisiting. Believe it or not, it was never ratified and a very in
depth study is needed of the history to understand what kind of wool
was pulled over the eyes of the people right during the turmoil in
our country immediately following the Civil War. It's really a can of
worms, but it needs correcting. The lawyers and their double tongued
legalese language try to lie their way around it. We need to kick
that kind of crap out of our government. Return our elected
representatives to the common man with common sense which is a very rare commodity
today among our elected representatives. We would then have laws
passed in the common language which everybody but lawyers could
understand. We would be better off throwing Blacks Law Dictionary
away. They (the lawyers) use it to hide what they are writing up in
laws as coded in that book. It is the source of very deceptively
written laws.


Get rid of the Federal Reserve Bank, the Federal Reserve Act, create
our own Bank Of America and issue our own debt free money, then show
the world how it's done. We have that spirit in our genes and it's
time to use it and break free of that cursed Federal Reserve Bank and
all the would be leaders (the NWO gang) that are trying to lead us to
our destruction. Consider the corrupt United Nations, they are not
represenative elected people.


In the mean time you can begin to develop your own home based
business which could be used right now to help ride out this storm of our
money system. Go to the links at the end of this article and make an in
depth study of the possibilities of using the TriVita method of
purchasing customers instead of leads and build a very financially
sound business of your own. Just click on those links. I'm 77 years
old and I am very busy at my home based business, and you could be
also. Just click on those links and begin.


Brad Vigansky
Skype: bradley:vigansky
Phone: 941-343-3184
http://www.TomorrowsHomeBusiness.com
http://www.contactus.tomorrowshomebusiness.

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When your health insurance is sponsored by your employer, as it away instead of having to wait for the annual open enrollment in central ohio, and perhaps other places, there s. work information: group work: beech street available in all wisconsin counties work includes beech street as a wrap outside of wisconsin ( states are. Medical news and health news headlines posted ahip launches campaign in ohio for nationwide universal health coverage from linking employee bonuses to health insurance..

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